Shipping Updates in the USA: What to Expect in November 2023 🚢

As we step into week 46 of 2023, shipping companies are announcing a new round of mid-month price hike plans across multiple routes. The key factors that will determine the effectiveness of these price increases remain the shippers’ acceptance of the new rates and the shipping companies’ resolve to maintain their pricing strategies. With November ushering in long-term contract negotiations, both shippers and carriers are gearing up for a period of intensive bargaining. The steadily rising spot freight rates could put upward pressure on the long-term market, creating a favorable negotiation environment for shipping companies.

Impact of U.S. Elections on Trade 🌎

Following the conclusion of the U.S. elections, Donald Trump is set to take office in the new year. Market analysts widely predict that there will be a strong likelihood of robust tariff policies imposed on China. This potential shift could lead to a surge in exports to the U.S. before the new tariffs come into effect, resulting in tight shipping capacity and increased freight rates. Moreover, Mexico is expected to progressively establish a central role in the logistics between China and the U.S., contributing to an anticipated rise in container trade volume between the two nations. Overall, Trump’s re-election adds a layer of uncertainty to the global trade landscape and the shipping market.

Container Supply Summary 📦

Aside from a few exceptions, container availability for shipping lines remains normal. CMA CGM has tightened its container release policy significantly, while larger containers are relatively abundant. On the other hand, small containers from Cosco and VOLTA continue to be in high demand. MSC has also issued a high-container warning, which was later lifted after half a day.

Route-Specific Updates ✈️

European Routes

Freight rates on European routes have stabilized following a mutually agreed price increase among shipping lines. The supply-demand scenario in the market remains relatively balanced, with a dense schedule of direct sailings that meet current demand. However, some shipping companies have started to lower rates.

East and West Mediterranean Routes

For East Mediterranean routes, freight rates remain stable with a rising volume of inquiries. However, small heavy cargo space remains tight (MSC continues to lead in heavy cargo). We expect a GRI increase of USD 500 to USD 1000 by the second half of the month. Conversely, West Mediterranean routes are seeing more relaxed space availability.

North America Routes 🇺🇸

Freight rates on North American routes held steady during week 46. There are plans to ship cargo out of the West Coast, and there is a significant advantage for early bookings. The recent strikes at Canadian ports, including Vancouver and Prince Rupert, are likely to impact the import of goods into the U.S. West Coast market.

Latin America Routes

Freight rates in Latin America have remained unchanged from last week, except for the CMA Caribbean line, which is seeing demand across all routes. In response to the potential for strict U.S.-China tariffs following the elections, there is optimism about increased cargo volume between China and Mexico.

Middle East and Indian Ocean Routes

Freight rates in the Middle East market are holding steady, with adjustments within a $50 to $100 range. The Australia-New Zealand route appears to be stable, though some price reductions are noted in New Zealand.

Africa Routes 🌍

Freight rates in East and West Africa for week 46 remain stable or see slight adjustments. MSC continues to hold an advantage for loading small heavy cargo. The shipping companies express cautious optimism about West Africa markets, having recently canceled price increases that were initially implemented. Shippers with export plans should closely monitor freight rate policies.

Southeast Asia Routes

The Southeast Asian market continues to heat up, with all routes reportedly hitting capacity limits and freight rates continuing to surge. There have been rate hikes of around $200 to $400 for routes such as Thailand-Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia, while Malaysia-Singapore shows similar increases. Generally, shipping services remain relatively normal, but shippers should prepare to book at least 2-3 weeks in advance to secure space at the best rates.

Conclusion ✨

As we navigate the complexities of the current shipping environment in light of economic and political shifts, stakeholders must stay vigilant. The potent combination of upcoming tariff policy changes, fluctuating freight rates, and evolving trade routes signifies an important time for both shippers and carriers. Keeping an eye on these developments will be crucial for ensuring successful logistics and trade strategies in the coming months.