Future Depreciation Predictions in the U.S. Market

Predictions on Items Likely to Depreciate in the Next Decade in the U.S.

As we navigate the rapidly changing landscapes of technology, economy, and society, it’s critical to analyze what items may experience significant depreciation in value over the next ten years. Here are insightful predictions based on current trends, although one must remember that the future carries its fair share of uncertainties. 🌍

1. Gasoline-Powered Cars

Reason for Depreciation: Global carbon neutrality initiatives are accelerating, with policies like the EU’s 2035 ban on gasoline vehicles. The decline in battery costs (expected to drop to $50/kWh by 2030) and the establishment of vast charging infrastructure, like China’s extensive network, further support this trend.

Alternatives: Electric vehicles are projected to surpass 50% global penetration by 2030, along with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (Japan has invested 300 billion yen in R&D).

2. Traditional Fossil Fuel Assets

Reason for Depreciation: The IEA forecasts a 30% decline in global coal demand by 2030, and stagnant oil demand. Additionally, the cost of solar photovoltaics is expected to fall by 82% over the next decade.

Alternatives: Perovskite solar cells and vanadium flow battery storage systems are on the rise.

3. Physical Retail Currency

Reason for Depreciation: Mobile payment penetration in China has reached 86% (2022 data), and 130 countries are researching Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

Alternatives: Digital renminbi transactions have exceeded a trillion yuan in pilot programs, along with advancements in cross-border CBDC payment systems.

4. Low-End Optical Imaging Equipment

Reason for Depreciation: The rise of smartphone computational photography (e.g., Xiaomi 14 Ultra with a 1-inch sensor) and advancements in AI imaging algorithms.

Alternatives: AI-assisted smartphone gimbals and AR glasses for photography (like Ray-Ban Meta).

5. Wired Audio Equipment

Reason for Depreciation: The market for true wireless stereo (TWS) headphones is growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2%, led by the proliferation of spatial audio technology.

Alternatives: Bone conduction sports headphones and brain-machine interface audio devices (with prototypes by Neuralink already tested).

6. Single-Function Appliances

Reason for Depreciation: The smart home market is expected to grow by 16.5% annually, driven by the trend of IoT protocol uniformity.

Alternatives: Modular kitchen robots (like Moley Robotics) and multifunction cooking machines that leverage AIoT technology.

7. Physical Storage Media

Reason for Depreciation: The global number of streaming service users surpassed 1.7 billion in 2023, with penetration of 5G set to reach 85% (according to Ericsson predictions).

Alternatives: Holographic storage technology (like Microsoft’s Project Silica) and quantum encryption cloud storage.

8. Traditional Identity Verification Systems

Reason for Depreciation: The global biometrics market is expected to grow at 15.4% annually, further propelled by the EU’s eIDAS 2.0 legislative push.

Alternatives: Multimodal biometrics (including gait, vein, and voice recognition) and blockchain-based self-sovereign identity systems.

9. Human Translation Services

Reason for Depreciation: The error rate for neural machine translation has fallen below 5% (Google AI), and real-time AR subtitling is becoming widespread.

Alternatives: AI-assisted translation glasses (like Waverly Labs) and devices for neuro-linguistic conversion.

10. Traditional Educational Credentials

Reason for Depreciation: MOOC user numbers have reached 220 million (Class Central data), with micro-credentialing systems gaining popularity (IBM has issued over a million digital badges).

Alternatives: Blockchain-based skill passports (like EU Digital Credentials) and AI-personalized learning path certifications.

Special Attention on Real Estate

The future of real estate value may show divergence; prime assets in core cities are likely to remain stable, while properties in non-core areas of third and fourth-tier cities may experience revaluation due to population movement and the rise of remote work. Alternatives could include modular and movable homes (like Boxabl’s over 60,000 orders) and virtual real estate in the metaverse.

In this rapidly evolving landscape, staying informed about these trends can help you make better investment decisions and make the most out of your assets. Remember to keep an eye on technological innovations and changing consumer preferences! 📈