Early Admission Predictions for US Universities: A Data-Driven Analysis

As the early decision (ED) application deadline for the 2026 academic year has passed, I humbly venture to offer some predictions regarding this year’s early admission results. This analysis is based on my comprehensive research, spanning from 2023 to 2025, which I published in my previous articles. Parents and students interested in this data can find the historical articles on my official platform.

Early Admission Trends for Chinese Students

During the early admission phase of the 2024-2025 application season, the top 30 US universities collectively granted 2,167 acceptances to Chinese students. This marks a noteworthy increase from 1,889 acceptances in 2024 and 1,833 in 2023, translating to an increase of approximately 14.72% year over year. When we exclude Florida’s admissions (aligning the comparison with 2024’s results), this represents a growth rate of about 10.16%.

Universities with Significant Growth in Admissions

Several institutions saw a sharp rise in acceptances for Chinese students, including the University of Pennsylvania, Northwestern University, Cornell University, Saint Louis University, Rice University, the University of Virginia, and the University of Southern California. Conversely, some universities, such as Duke University, the University of Notre Dame, the University of Michigan—Ann Arbor, and the University of North Carolina—Chapel Hill, experienced a notable decrease in their admission rates.

Increased Focus on Early Decision Applications

Top US universities are placing greater emphasis on early decision applications, with an increasing number of institutions offering this option over the past five years. New additions include:

The University of Chicago, which introduced ED0 in 2025
Rice University, which implemented ED2
The University of Michigan—Ann Arbor, which added ED for 2026
The University of Southern California testing ED in its business school
Johns Hopkins University, adding ED2 in 2021
Florida, which introduced EA for 2025

Currently, UCLA, UC Berkeley, and UC San Diego are the only three among the top 30 US universities that do not offer any early decision options.

ED1 vs. ED2 Admissions

The top universities are increasingly prioritizing ED1 admissions. Among the top 30, five universities offer ED2 as a supplementary option: Johns Hopkins University, the University of Chicago, Rice University (now in its second year), Saint Louis University, and Emory University. Note that Carnegie Mellon University will no longer offer ED2 starting in 2025.

Performance Trends in ED2

Among the universities offering ED2, Vanderbilt University saw a decrease of about 33% in accepted students compared to 2024 (accepting only eight students). Conversely, the University of Chicago’s ED0 admissions have shown growth, although their regular decision admissions saw a decline of eight students in 2025. This trend suggests that we may witness a dip in ED2 numbers for 2026.

Overall, the early decision admission numbers for Chinese students have increased by about 17%, with 12 more acceptances this year. However, regular decision numbers dropped significantly, down by approximately 41% (69 fewer acceptances).

Key Insights for Chinese Students

When assessing the early decision results, it’s essential to note the influence of ED1 on ED2 admissions. For instance, after a reduction of 11 students in ED1 admissions at Johns Hopkins, ED2 saw an increase of eight students. In contrast, Vanderbilt’s early decision admissions increased by eight, yet ED2 decreased by four. Emory University also exhibited a decrease in ED1 admissions by five but saw a substantial increase in ED2 outcomes—a growth of 13 placements.

Notably, Saint Louis University has shown consistent growth over the past two years across ED1, ED2, and regular admissions for Chinese students—an impressive increase of 30.85% compared to 2024. This university warrants particular attention for prospective applicants.

Conclusion

Looking forward to the 2025-2026 application cycle, I predict that early admissions for Chinese students at the top 30 US universities will hover around 1,810, with New York University (aligned with the 2025 top 30 admissions for direct comparison) expected to be around 2,320—a 7% increase over 2025. The Ivy League schools might accept approximately 65 students, while the top 10 could see about 280 admissions. In summary, significant shifts are visible, and prospective applicants should stay informed and strategize accordingly.

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